ADVANCED MODELING SYSTEM FOR ASSESSING LONG-TERM REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS, TRAVEL BEHAVIOR, EMISSIONS, AND AIR QUALITY (R831835)
31st Oct 2005, 10:42 GMT
The fundamental goal of our research is to rigorously test the hypothesis that development patterns, implemented regionally over a planning horizon of 50 years, can significantly influence the spatial characteristics and quantity of emissions from on-road mobile sources and rail transit vehicles, and hence reduce levels of tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter. The development patterns of interest include the type of development and its location (e.g., transit oriented development, dense mixed use development, development supportive of nonmotorized transportation modes for nonwork trips, neotraditional suburbs, new urban core development, and redevelopment). We will test our hypothesis with a case study of the Charlotte (NC) metropolitan area. Our approach is distinguished by the land-use typology and simulation model that we will employ. We will develop a quantitative typology of land-use patterns at the neighborhood level (defined as the transportation analysis zone -TAZ), which we have labeled the TAZ Transect. Then, we will develop a travel forecasting model in which trip generation, destination choice, and mode choice (including nonmotorized modes) are sensitive to attributes of the built environment and account for non-motorized modes as travel options. Vehicle emissions will be estimated with a modal approach. The emission inventories that we will generate will be ready to drive the Models 3/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ).
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