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Early Results - Canadian Election - Conservative Minority

24th Jan 2006, 09:16 GMT

Early results are now in for the Canadian Federal Election: Stephen Harper's Conservatives appear to be enroute to a minority government with the Tories leading or elected in 99 ridings, the Liberals leading or elected in 87, the Bloq Quebecois leading or elected in 50 ridings, the New Democratic Party leading or elected in 22, and one independent elected. Canwest Global appears to have already called it for Harper (as of about 9:45 pm EST) and most of the networks appear to be predicting a minority government. On the popular vote, so far the Tories are pulling in 35.54%, the Liberals 36.16%, the BQ 3.57%, the NDP 21% and the other assorted parties (the Green Party, the Marijuana Party etc.) a total of about 3.38%. A minority Conservative government means that Stephen Harper will form the next government as Prime Minister but will be forced to compromise with members of the other parties, most probably the BQ. For those unfamiliar with a Minority government, basically it occurs when the majority party does not hold more than 50% of the seats in the House of Commons. Without 50% they are forced to either form a coalition with another party or work closely with other parties to reach compromise positions. The implications within the Canadian political sphere should be quite complicated. The Tories will most probably end up working closely with the Bloc Quebecois, a regional Quebec party dedicated to Quebec seperatism. Given that the Tories main power base is western Canada, not a region known for its tolerence of "coddling Quebec", it should result in some interesting permutations... Needless to say the minority government should prove a significant check on any grandiose Conservative visions for a future Canada - don't expect any hard-core, right-wing conservative revolution - compromise and conciliation will be the name of the game until the government pushes the other parties too hard and forces an election. If Harper can control his unwieldy and dangerous compromise with The BQ, a party dedicated to dividing the country, look for a new election with the Tories trying to move to a majority sometime probably within the next two to three years at the most, possibly sooner given the Tory leader's difficulties in keeping his party in line and the probably tricky balancing act he will have to play with his own western power base.... In short, it seems that the Canadian electorate has reached that most Canadian of solutions - a government that will be forced to work with others to survive.

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